Thursday, November 19, 2009

Red Sox Offseason Preview: Part Two

2010 Boston Red Sox Pitching Preview: Italic: Possible Free Agent Acquisition (exception of Roy Halladay via trade)

SP: Josh Beckett $12 million
SP: Jon Lester $3.75 million
SP: Clay Buchholz $400,000+
SP: Daisuke Matsuzaka $8 million
SP: Tim Wakefield $3.5 million (w/ incentives $5.5 million)
SP: Roy Halladay, Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, Justin Duchscherer, Aroldis Chapman

RP: Jonathan Papelbon, Arb. Eligible, 2009: $6.25 million
RP: Daniel Bard $400,000
RP: Hideki Okajima, Arb. Eligible, 2009: $1.75 million
RP: Ramon Ramirez, Arb. Eligible, 2009: $440,000
RP: Manny Delcarmen, Arb. Eligible 2009: $480,000
RP: Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, Kiko Calero, Russ Springer, Chad Cordero

Free Agents: RP Billy Wagner, RP Takashi Saito, SP Paul Byrd, RP Fernando Cabrera

Starting Pitching:

The Red Sox rotation seems to be in good shape heading into this year's offseason as it has in season's past, but that hasn't stopped GM Theo Epstein from seeking out further depth. The organizational philosophy calls for at least 7-8 deep in a potential rotation depth chart. Last season, the team took on a couple of low-risk, high-reward options in SP Brad Penny & SP John Smoltz. Although neither option panned out for the team, this is a prime example of the type of move that can take a contending team to championship caliber.


The Roy Halladay situation is two-fold. The team would be compromising the farm system to add the hurler who has only one year left on his deal. Although they would be given a window to negotiate a contract extension, the team would be put in a precarious situation with Josh Beckett's deal also maturing at the same time. Having said that, Roy Halladay is arguably the best right handed starter in baseball and the Sox would be foolish not to gauge the asking price, especially with the Yankees showing interest and Blue Jays new GM Alex Anthopoulos stating that he's not opposed to dealing within the division.

With Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield both battling health concerns, Epstein will not rely on either of those starters to remain healthy all season long. Look for the team to sign one or two pitchers in the same mold as last offseason. The extremely talented but injury-plagued Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, or Justin Duchscherer could be ideal fits for the team, as each may take a short-term deal to re-establish his value and hit the free agent market when the economic climate is more favorable. Harden benefited from a change a scenery out of Oakland and may find success with the Sox if he's not asked to be a full-time starter. In 26 starts last year hold posted a 4.09 ERA and struck out 171 batters in 141 innings. Sheets, who missed the '09 season after elbow surgery, claims that he's fully healthy and is looking to prove that he can still be a dominant pitcher in the major leagues. Duchscherer, a former Red Sox of many years ago, has had trouble staying on the mound but posted a 2.54 ERA in 22 starts in 08 after missing all of last year.

Who is Aroldis Chapman?

The name that most won't recognize immediately on this list is Cuban LHP Aroldis Chapman. After he attempted to defect from Cuba but failed in 2008, he successfully did so in 2009 when the Cuban team was in the Netherlands. He then established residency in Andorra, a small country in southwestern Europe. He was granted free agency status by the MLB shortly thereafter and is now one of the most sought after starters this winter.

At 21 years old, the young pitching stud stands 6'4, 180 lbs, and with a fastball that's been clocked at 102 MPH, it's easy to see why people in the industry have been getting so excited about this kid's potential. However, if the Sox were to pursue him, it's thought that he'd spend some time in the minors because the kid is just that; a kid. The team would like to see him translate his potential into established talent before they bring him into the dangerous AL east. As usual, the Yankees are hot after the lefty as well so it may become a bidding war that we know all to often goes the Yanks way (ie Jose Contreras).

How About That Bullpen?

The team's bullpen looks very solid on paper heading into the free agency period, but unfortunately that talent on paper does not always translate into successful performance. The Sox have found themselves an extremely reliable setup man in the young fireballer Daniel Bard and have one of the best closers in the game, Jonathan Papelbon. The one glaring need in the bullpen is the need for another power arm, preferably a left handed one. Impending free agent Billy Wagner is not expected back with the team as he looks for a chance to be the closer elsewhere. An ideal target for the team would be lefty Mike Gonzalez (2.42 ERA, 74 1/3 IP, 90 Ks), who finished last season's as Atlanta's closer. He has phenomenal success against lefties (.194 BAA) and possesses a power fastball that is effective against righties. He would fit nicely into the Boston bullpen as a compliment to Bard and/or an alternate to Hideki Okajima.

Mike Gonzalez an option?

The team could look to sign reliable veteran man in the bullpen also to pair with Manny Delcarmen in a possible long relief role. Kiko Calero is a guy who fell off of many people's radar last season, but one that I think would flourish nicely in the Boston bullpen. Calero posted an unbelievable 1.95 ERA last season pitching for Florida and boasts an impressive career ERA of 3.24. He would be a talented reliever who could come in and get a big strikeout and could come at a relatively low price. The most intriguing prospect for the Sox could be the forgotten Chad Cordero. Once an NL all-star for the Washington Nationals, Cordero has suffered from shoulder issues that have prevented him from returning to dominant form. If the 27-year old pitcher can prove he's healthy, he could have a tremendous impact at the back end of Boston's bullpen after posting 37 saves just two seasons ago.

What's our Outlook?

When all is said and done, look for the team to add another one or two starters that can step in reliably as the result of injury as well as one or two bullpen guys that can contribute immediately to the team. Epstein will search both the free agent and trade market tirelessly to bring in guys that he feels are high-upside with low salary obligations and/or demands. Free Agents can begin to sign at midnight tonight (Nov. 20th); happy Halladay/Holliday shopping, Sox fans!
Check out our hitting portion in Part One of this post.

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