Patriots Clinch Division With A Win

Brady will torch the Jags.

PATRIOTS (9-5) vs. JAGUARS (7-7)

Sunday 1PM @ Gillette - CBS
LINE: Patriots -9

OVER/UNDER: 44

In the last few weeks the Patriots have not played their best games. If it weren't for the terrible play of their last two opponents the Patriots could easily be in a much different situation. Fortunately for them, with a win this week against the Jaguars or a Miami loss the Patriots can become 2009 AFC East Champions.

The Patriots' last home game of the season will be against a Jacksonville Jaguars squad that remains very much in the hunt for a playoff spot. Of the five 7-7 teams in the AFC the Jags have the best shot at the playoffs with the best overall conference record. The Jags are a physical team and they will be fired up to play home spoiler.


If the Patriots can do the following they will be alright:


1. Stop MJD. The Jags offense has been inconsistent at best this season, but even so they posses a couple of threats on offense, most notably 5'7'' bowling ball Maurice Jones-Drew. He is tied for the NFL lead with 15 TD and is third in running yards with 1246 yards. MJD is built like a brick-shit-house and is difficult to tackle above the waste, the Patriots defense needs to gang tackle all game. The Jags also rely on Jones-Drew's ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, as he's 6th in the NFL among backs with 49 receptions.


2. Take away the Jags underneath passing game. Other than Mike Sims-Walker (59 receptions, 822 yards, 7 TDs) the Jags have no established vertical threat. David Garrard is amongst the NFL's worst in yards-per-completion at 7.1. The Jags use slants, outs, hitches, and dump offs to lull defenses asleep before they go up top for a deep throw. The Patriots need to maintain faith in their young DB's, press the Jags WR's at the line, and play coverages that will keep the Jags receivers in front of them.


3. Let Brady light it up. The Patriots run-heavy offense last week was what they needed to do to win against the Bills. This week the Patriots need to torch the Jags' secondary who rank 27th in pass defense. On top of that the Jags are dead last in the with only 14 sacks, and are giving up a terrible 45% of 3rd downs, 4th worst in the NFL. If the Jags decide to double Randy Moss look for Brady to look the opposite way all game and try to get the other receivers and tight ends involved in the game.


If the Patriots play like they have in the last two weeks than this game could be a long one. The Jags generally play to the level of their competition and the Patriots can expect a dog fight tomorrow.

INJURY REPORT:

Patriots Injury Report
Limited Participation
T Nick Kaczur (shoulder) questionable
G Stephen Neal (ankle) questionable
RB Fred Taylor (ankle) questionable
DE Ty Warren (ankle) questionable
DL Vince Wilfork (foot) questionable
DE Jarvis Green (knee) probable

Full Participation
WR Sam Aiken (shoulder) probable
LB Tully Banta-Cain (shoulder) probable
QB Tom Brady (right shoulder/right finger/rib) probable
WR Julian Edelman (forearm) probable
CB Shawn Springs (knee) probable
TE Benjamin Watson (knee) probable

Jaguars Injury Report
Limited Participation
CB Rashean Mathis (groin) questionable
LB Tank Daniels (groin) questionable

Full Participation
DT John Henderson (shoulder) probable

Prediction: 34-14 Patriots

What do you think?