Friday, April 2, 2010

Red Sox Season Preview

David Ortiz's bat is a key to the season.

All winter we have been highlighting position player and pitching previews of the members of the Boston Red Sox. We'd like to take this forum to preview the season as a whole. After narrow thought we boiled down the upcoming season to these key points:
  1. Can the offense get it done?: David Oritz is the wild card this year. The line up is arguably deeper than ever with a lot of tough outs packed in there, but the team may be missing some bop in the middle. If Ortiz can hit 30+ home runs out of the #5 spot in the line up behind a filthy first four hitters, it may be a moot point. If he does indeed struggle, it will cause the Sox to look to Mike Lowell to take some of those ABs away and could eventually lead to another deadline deal for a bat.
  2. Will the improved defense make a difference?: The ultimate zone rate per 150 games or UZR/150 measures the number of runs below or above the average fielder per 150 defensive games. A part of the team's offseason priorities, the team significantly upgraded their D across the diamond. The following is the list of starters followed by their UZR/150 at the position they will playing: 1B Youkilis (+15.2), 2B Pedroia (+10.6), 3B Beltre (+21), SS Scutaro (+1), LF Ellsbury (+30.3 - 2008), CF Cameron (+10.3), RF Drew (+15.7). You'd be hard pressed to find a team in the majors that has all positive UZR/150 regulars. The team upgraded at third base where Lowell had a -14.4 in 2009, left field where Bay had a -11.2, and center where Ellsbury had a -18.3. They did downgrade from Alex Gonzalez's masterful +15.2 at shortstop, but +1 is no slouch at baseball's toughest position for Scutaro. If you take the UZR/150 with a grain of salt and don't buy into the sabermetrics of baseball that's fine, but mark our word that this year's defense will be better.
  3. Can the back end of the rotation find its identity?: We know what we're getting from our three aces Beckett, Lester, and Lackey. The real question is, can one of Buchholz, Wakefield, and Matsuzaka pitch to their potential. It's not inconceivable and if one of then does then that gives the Sox four sure things in the rotation.
  4. Is the bullpen deep enough?: Compared to last year? No. The team lost two reliable arms in Wagner and Saito and replaced them with two question marks. Of course this is always a position that can be upgraded in season, but it comes at a premium. Yes, another year of Bard at the back end will be better, but it'd be nice to give Francona some more options than just him and Okajima in a close game.
These are all important questions as the 2010 season approaches, and it should be a wild one. The division will be tough to take with the likes of the again world champion Yankees, and improved Rays, but the wild card opponents as a whole are a bit weaker. If the team stays predominantly healthy, we have them at a 96-66 record.

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