Make no mistake, this series is all about Daisuke Matsuzaka for the Red Sox. Period. Boston's rotation hasn't been consistent at all the second half of the season. Beckett seems to be getting it together and Clay Buchholz has stamped his name on the third starter spot. Having Dice-K even close to his potential would make the playoff rotation concrete (although its rare to see a fourth starter get too much action in the playoffs, you have to have the depth available). The Sox should be able to get by for the rest of the season with Wake, Byrd, Tazawa, and Bowden taking turns with the fifth starter spot.
Daisuke sucked in the first half of the season. Everyone, including myself, has to admit they rooted to get Dice-K booted from the rotation and to not have to see him again. "Trade him! He's a bust! He can't adjust to the American game."Now everyone's back on the bandwagon, welcoming back the Japanese messiah.There's no arguing that Daisuke's struggles had a huge impact on the rotation in general, leading to the mix-matching through August. When you lose your third starter, the fourth starter gets moved up into a role he just isn't talented enough for and you end up with more scrubs filling in after that. It's immeasurably easier to replace a fifth guy than a third. Thank God for Buchholz stepping up.
Daisuke was tough to watch last year and this year was so much worse. He went from 5 1/3 innings and one run to three innings and five runs a game. Just tore up the bullpen and put too much pressure on the offense. He had an 8.23 ERA in 35 innings over eight starts. That's just 4 1/3 innings per start, not to mention 19.5 pitches per innings (rule of thumb is 15 per inning for a solid starter); unacceptable. Most point to the World Baseball Classic (the root of all evil to baseball purists) as the cause of the struggles, but reports mention Epstein and Farrell both being on Dice-K since spring training because he was overweight, out of shape, had a weak lower body and core, and was getting all of his velocity from his arm, creating a lot of stress on the shoulder.
Matsuzaka got put on the DL for the second time of the season in June and was sent to Fort Myers to get into shape, to get his whole body stronger, and to recommit to the Sox's patented shoulder strengthening program. Reports are he looks leaner, stronger, and like an overall better athlete now that he's back in Boston. His rehab starts were solid for the most part with one shaky start. He had six rehab starts, totaling 21 innings, a 3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and .228 BA against. Solid numbers (the ERA is a little bit high because of one start where he gave up a five run first inning) but the best part is the 23/9 K/BB ratio and14.2 pitches per inning in his last two starts. These are the signs we've been praying for from Dice-K since we first saw his corner-nibbling ways.
The outlook for Matsuzaka is good, but we can't get our hopes up too quick. He still hasn't faced major league hitters in almost three months and we'll see how he handles the pressure of being back on the mound with 30,000 critical fans watching. Expect a semi-slow start as he gets his groove, and then if he's for real, we should see some quick innings and higher strikeout numbers. Best case scenario, Dice-K pitches solidly for the rest of the year (6+ innings, 3 runs,95 pitches) and use the experience as motivation to come into spring training hungry. Worst case, he's another John Smoltz and Theo has a big decision to make this winter...
No comments:
Post a Comment