Patriots - Ravens Preview

Second year QB Joe Flacco appears more
poised and confident this year, but the Patriots
shut down fellow sophomore Matt Ryan last week.

Patriots (2-1) vs. Ravens (3-0)
Sunday 1:00 PM - CBS
Favorite: Patriots -2
Over/Under: 44 1/2

The last time the Pats faced the Ravens was in the midst of the 2007 16-0 season. The Patriots entered Baltimore 11-0 for a Monday night game, and it appeared as if the hopes of a perfect season were about to come to an end. A critical 4th and 1 play with less than two minutes left and Patriots down resulted in a run up the middle that was stuffed, but the Ravens had called a timeout right before the play. The Patriots had a second life and converted. There were also some controversial referee calls that went the our way on the final drive, and a eight yard TD pass to Jabar Gaffney with 44 seconds left gave the Pats the victory.

Now onto the present. The Ravens are a good football team and are 3-0 coming into Foxborough this weekend. They are well coached, they call a good, consistent game, and are predominately a veteran team.

There will be a lot of hype before kickoff about the Ravens coming up here and beating the Patriots, but two of their three victories were home wins against bad football teams (Chiefs and Browns) and a road win against a depleted team (Chargers).

Five things to watch for:

5. Can we stuff the Ravens smash-mouth rushing attack? Vince Wilfork did participate in practice today, but if he can't go Sunday New England will face a tough task of stopping the Ravens' two-headed monster. Ray Rice (192 yards, 5.1 per carry, 1 TD) and Willis McGahee (190, 5.9, 5) are employed heavily by Ravens coach John Harbaugh and his staff, and with some showers in the forecast the Ravens will try and stick to the run if they are not behind.

4. Conversely, can the Patriots maintain a consistent ground game against the swarming Ravens D? The Pats will need to establish a ground game. It is imperative because the team needs to keep defenses honest. When we can run the ball, it opens up the play-action and the passing game in general. Brady admits he is not where he wants to be mechanically yet, so the ground game takes a bit of the load off of him. Fred Taylor, fresh off a 100-yard game, and Laurence Maroney, who has not been limited in practice this week after an early exit last week, will be called upon.

3. Who will win the time of possession battle? Last season I watched a Sunday Night Football game where the Ravens called 9 straight running plays on a drive that ate up nearly an entire quarter of football. When the Ravens are ahead they keep the ball of the ground, so the Patriots will need to make sure Brady and the offense are on the field more often than not. The best way to do that? We need to have the lead.

2. Rex Ryan is gone, but can the Patriots not be victimized by this ball-hawk D? The Ravens have six interceptions and seven sacks as a defense through three games. With perennial all-pros in LB Ray Lews, LB/DE Terrell Suggs, and S Ed Reed, the team has a lot of players that we need to be focused on their whereabouts. A lot of time the pressure sets up interceptions for a defense, so the Patriots o-line will come into play. If you've noticed, the offensive front five have not given up a sack since the season opener (11 quarters of play). A clean pocket for Brady should allow him to find the open receiver.

1. Will the Patriots fix their correctable red zone woes? The Patriots are 4/13 in the red zone so far this year. The average conversion of a red zone possession to a touchdown is about 50%, and we do not see our offense as a league average offense. The Ravens defense has been superb in the red zone too, allowing only 2/8 possessions to go for TDs. Like I said, this is a correctable problem, and we all know Bill Belichick emphasizes situational football. Expect the Pats to start stuffing it in the end zone soon instead of settling for short field goals.

Extras:

-Jerod Mayo, 18 days since suffering a sprained MCL, was spotted at the begining of practice today. He is being called doubtful though, and Wilfork is a game-time decision.

-If Wilfork can't go Sunday, it should be interesting to see who handle the NT duties. Sixth rounder Myron Pryor got the call over second rounder Ron Brace last week, but the team brought in mauler Terdell Sands (6'7" 335 pounds) this week.

-Moss and Welker each were limited in practice yesterday. We don't need to be concerned about Moss playing Sunday (by the way he leads the league in catches with 26), but Welker's injury appears to be lingering.