C: Victor Martinez - $7.5 million
1B: Kevin Youkilis- $9.125 million
2B: Dustin Pedroia- $3.5 million
3B: Mike Lowell- $12 million
SS:
LF:
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury - $400,000+
RF: J.D. Drew - $14 million
DH: David Ortiz - $12.5 million
Bench:
C: Jason Varitek - $3 million
1B: Casey Kotchman - Arbitration Eligible; 2009: $2.89 million
SS: Jed Lowrie - $400,000+
OF: Jeremy Hermida - Arbitration Eligible; 2009: $2.25 million
Non-Tender Candidates: Casey Kotchman
Free Agents: Jason Bay, Rocco Baldelli, Joey Gathright, Nick Green, Alex Gonzalez
Where Do They Fit? C George Kottaras, OF Brian Anderson, OF Josh Reddick, INF Jed Lowrie
Were we good enough to win it all?
The Sox are faced with the tough task this offseason of trying to figure out what went wrong for the offense in our three game playoff stint. Unexpectedly bounced in the first round of the playoffs by the Angels, GM Theo Epstein will look to shake things up. The last time the Sox were trounced in the first round of the playoffs was in 2002 and wholesale changes were made.
The Jason Bay Situation
The most glaring concern for the Red Sox this offseason will be the contract situation of impending FA LF Jason Bay. The Canadian slugger was traded from Pittsburgh to Boston in the infamous deal that sent Manny Ramirez across the country and has quickly become a fan favorite at Fenway. Bay has done everything that the Red Sox have asked of him and is expected to command between $15-$17 million on the open market. The Sox have knowingly offered him a contract extension worth $15 million per season over four years, but Bay has said that he will test free agency as this is the first time in his career that he's been a free agent. Most notably, he is on record as saying he will not accept a discount to stay with the team. The team does have an exclusive, 15-day negotiating window with him (which began last Thursday) before he can speak with other teams, but all signs point towards him hitting the open market.
This may hurt the Sox's chances of retaining him as teams that lose out on fellow free agent LF Matt Holliday may find themselves bidding for Bay's services. However, if the Sox are able to resign Bay, it may limit their financial flexibility in attempting to fill other roster holes. If the team is unable to resign him, look for Epstein and the team to be creative in finding a new starting outfielder. Already acquiring LF Jeremy Hermida from the Florida Marlins, the team is wasting no time in an attempt to dethrone the Yankees and bringing the World Series trophy back to Boston. Expect the Sox to make at least a couple more moves, that although may not be headline-worthy, will greatly aid the team in their championship quest (For example, last offseason the Sox sent CF Coco Crisp to the Kansas City Royals for RP Ramon Ramirez, who transpired into an integral part of the bullpen).
If the Sox don't retain Bay or acquire Matt Holliday, they may attempt to platoon Jeremy Hermida with a right-handed hitting bat in LF. Hermida doesn't hit LHP well, so the players listed as platoon partners are all right-handers who hit lefties well. Having to have a platoon in left would hopefully be the result of acquiring a power corner infield bat and saving money on a left fielder.
The Farm
Epstein's biggest talent as GM is his ability to make moves that help the major league club without hurting the team's minor league depth. Epstein understands that because he is competing with the Yankees, who will spare no expense to reel in all of the big ticket free agents, that he must make moves that aid and assist his major league roster without sacrificing any minor league depth. The Red Sox have notoriously one of the best farm systems in the league year in and year out.
What do the Red Sox do for a shortstop?
The team must decide if injury-plagued SS Jed Lowrie is capable of being an everyday player. Thus far he has not left that impression, and Epstein recently recognized that his injury concerns may force the Sox to bring in a reliable starter for the position. Not to mention the fact that Lowrie's development has been stunted by the time he has missed. Look for the team to be players in the shortstop market, both via free agency and via trade. It's not out of the question that impending FA Alex Gonzalez will be back with the team, even though the team recently declined his $6 million option. The team couldn't justify paying him that salary in the current economic climate, but nonetheless remain interested in bringing him back at a lesser salary.
If the team decides to attempt to acquire a SS via trade, don't be surprised to see the names Stephen Drew (Arizona) and Cristian Guzman (Washington) pop up in the headlines. Drew has long been rumored to be a favorite the Red Sox front office and may welcome an opportunity to play alongside his brother. Guzman is an intriguing candidate because he is quickly becoming disgruntled in Washington and the fact that the Sox attempted to try and get him in the post-waiver deadline period in August. Posting one of his better seasons in the last few years (.284/6/52), the Nationals have asked Guzman to switch to 2B citing a lack of range. If the Red Sox believe he's still capable of playing the position, the team could find themselves with a valuable new SS at a very low asking price.
There are also a flurry of free-agent possibilities including Marco Scutaro. The 34-year old defensive whiz enjoyed a career year at the plate last season posting a .789 OPS in 574 ABs, but carries Type-A status meaning the Sox would have to forfeit picks for his services. However, if the team decides to offer arbitration to impending FA Billy Wagner and he declines, the Sox will receive compensatory picks from the team that he signs with.
I want Adrian Gonzalez as the starting 1B.
Don't we all? The slugger posted a ridiculous .277/40/99 line playing half of his games in the pitcher's paradise known as Petco Park. In fact, one GM was recently quoted as saying that if Gonzalez played in Boston there would be two teams (Sox & Yankees) that would be impossible to pitch to. The same GM also said that if Gonzalez played for the Sox that it's conceivable he would've hit 50 HR last year. That figure may not be an exaggeration at all, as Gonzalez played this last season with a less than stellar offense and still posted some of the best numbers in the league. At 27 years old, this kid is entering his baseball prime.
It's no secret that the team has had an infatuation with Gonzalez for quite some time now, and it's also no secret that the Padres simply can't afford to keep him. His trade value is driven down with every day that passes by towards his impending free agency which is not for two years. With the depth that Epstein has built in the minor leagues, many around the industry feel that the Padres and Sox could matchup on a potential Gonzalez deal. One potential snag in any deal is San Diego's desire for cheap, MLB-ready talent. The Sox do not have a lot of players that fall into this category, but can offer a plethora of young promising pitchers that are under team control for a long time. It certainly doesn't hurt that the Pads new GM, Jed Hoyer, worked directly with Epstein before moving onto San Diego just a few weeks ago.
If the Red Sox were able to acquire Gonzalez, it would provide the offense a tremendous boost. This would slide Youkilis over to 3rd, and would make Lowell, in the last year of his deal, much more attractive in a potential trade. It's all speculation, but his impact as the long-term answer is hard to ignore.
Possible Acquisitions: Free Agents unless noted otherwise
1B- Adrian Gonzalez
SS - Alex Gonzalez, Marco Scutaro, Jack Wilson, Orlando Cabrera, Stephen Drew (trade), Cristian Guzman (trade)
LF -(Starting options) Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, Marlon Byrd,
LF** - Xavier Nady, Austin Kearns, Marcus Thames, Reed Johnson, Ryan Ludwick (trade), Josh Willingham (trade), Chase Headley (trade), Delmon Young (trade), Matt Murton (trade)
INF - Alex Cora, Jerry Hairston Jr., John McDonald
**Right-handed hitting platoon options with Hermida if they don't sign a starting LF
Check back for a preview of the pitching outlook this offseason in the coming days.
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