Patriots - Bills Preview

The Patriots squeaked out a win against the Bills in week 1.
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PATRIOTS (8-5) @ BILLS (5-8)
Sunday 1PM - CBS
Line: Patriots -7
Over/Under: 40.5

This week is all about taking care of business after a week marred by distraction. The Patriots head to Buffalo where they have won the last 12 contests between the two squads. Buffalo has been a team in flux all season long with injuries, suspensions, and poor play that has led to a very inconsistent season.

Although the Patriots have clearly become a pass first offense, sticking to the run this week is going to be essential. Buffalo ranks dead last in run defense in the NFL. They have given up an atrocious 17 rushing TD's and 170 yards per game on the ground. The weather looks decent on Sunday with lows in the 20's and a 20% chance of precipitation, but there are always those unpredictable wind patterns in Buffalo.

If the Pats establish the run, it will only be a matter of time before Welker and Moss beat someone in one on one coverage. Everyone knows the Pats have been off recently. Last week's game was uninspiring and soft. No team in the NFL should be taken lightly but if the Pats stick to our keys to the game they will come out on top.

1. Run the ball. This is obvious but it's something the Patriots take for granted sometimes with WR's like Welker and Moss. The Patriots average number of runs and passes per game this season stands at a ratio of 29:39 respectively. That number should be much different on Sunday if the Pats emphasize the run and get fresh legs back. The Bills let up an atrocious 170 yards per game rushing and have allowed 17 TD's on the ground this season. Brady has thrown an interception in 6 out of his last 7 games, but hopefully he won't be asked to do too much this week.

2. Shut down the Bills RB's. With the availability of NT Vince Wilfork and DE Ty Warren in question, the Pats defense will have to stand tall on Sunday. Everyone knows Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch are hard runners, but it's easy to forget both these guys are threats in the passing game. With a weak vertical passing attack, the Bills rely heavily on screens and dump offs to their RB's. As arguably the team's two best weapons, it's important the Patriots linebackers know where these guys are all day.

3. Have sound play in the secondary. While the Bills don't poise the biggest threat offensively, this is a great chance for the Patriots secondary to bounce back from some tough games and build confidence heading into the playoff picture. This unit is going to be heavily relied upon in the coming weeks. We all know that the talent is there but it's the mental breakdowns that have hurt the most. If they cut down on those this team is will begin to play how we expected them too.

4. Play with pride. Usually this never even needs to be said, but last week a few key players looked lost and uninterested. Everyone wants to see a team that comes out and dictates the intensity of the game.

The Patriots face a less than household name in QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. People may remember Fitzpatrick either from backup stints in Cincinnati and St. Louis or as the pride of the Harvard Crimson Tide. Before his starting stint in Buffalo, he has been a career backup. Fitzpatrick has shown the ability to connect for some big plays down field with TO and the Pats must be ready for a potential potent aerial attack if they successfully defend against Buffalo's running game.

Only holding a one game lead in the division over the Jets and Dolphins, this is a much more important game than we thought it would be. Hopefully the team can continue to build as they gear toward a playoff push.

INJURY REPORT:

Patriots:
Did Not Participate
DE Ty Warren (ankle) Questionable
DL Vince Wilfork (foot) Questionable

Limited Participation
RB Fred Taylor (ankle) Questionable
WR Sam Aiken (shoulder) Questionable
LB Tully Banta-Cain (shoulder) Questionable
WR Julian Edelman (forearm) Questionable
DE Jarvis Green (knee) Questionable
T Nick Kaczur (shoulder) Questionable
G Stephen Neal (ankle) Questionable
DL Myron Pryor (chest) Questionable
TE Benjamin Watson (knee) Questionable
QB Tom Brady (right shoulder/right finger/rib) Probable
CB Leigh Bodden (thigh) Probable

Full Participation
CB Shawn Springs (knee) Probable

Bills:
Did Not Participate
WR Terrell Owens (illness) Questionable

Limited Participation
T Jonathan Scott (eye) Questionable
WR Justin Jenkins (knee) Questionable
TE Jamon Meredith (ankle) Questionable
S Jairus Byrd (groin) Probable