Red Sox Offseason To Date

The Red Sox have had one of their busiest off-seasons in years and are certainly among the most active teams this winter. The starting rotation was solidified with the addition of John Lackey, though the rotation wasn't necessarily a pressing concern. Marco Scutaro was signed to stop the revolving door at shortstop and Mike Cameron will fill in the outfield for the next two years. What more will the Red Sox do?

From the Offseason Preview:

1. What do the Red Sox do for a shortstop?

--This seems to be the most straightforward answer the Sox have given us thus far. Scutaro will be the starting shortstop for the next two years (and a third if his option is picked up) and will provide more than solid defense; he possesses good plate discipline at the bottom of the lineup. He was the best option in the free agent shortstop market and came much cheaper than expected. He's certainly no stud, but he won't be a question mark and didn't cost big money or prospects (since Atlanta signed Billy Wagner and gave us draft picks to give up for Scutaro).

Grade: B+

2. What's going to happen with Jason Bay?

--Jason Bay appears to be gone. His agent, Joe Urbon, made it clear to the Red Sox that Bay wanted at least 5 years, preferably at $15-16MM per year. The team was not willing to extend the length of his contract that long because of some medical concerns with his shoulder and knee. Bay's suspect defense made the decision easier for the team that finished second worst in defense last year. Some claim that the Sox pushed Bay away by making their first offer too close to their best offer. Others say Urbon had a much larger market for Bay in mind than there is. The Mariners traded for Milton Bradley this week, ending their pursuit of Bay. The Yankees picked up Curtis Granderson and the Angels have made it clear they're not interested. This pretty much means it's the Mets bidding against... the Mets.

As for what the Sox will do without Bay, Mike Cameron is the obvious answer. The current outfield situation looks like Drew, Ellsbury, and Cameron, with Jeremy Hermida filling in against some righties for Cameron and even drawing the occasional start in RF when JD needs a day off. This combination should provide a significant upgrade defensively, with three fielders who provide above average range. The problem is that even Hermida and Cameron at their best can't be the presence in the lineup that Bay was.

Grade: B

3. Will there be any big changes in the starting rotation?

--Yes. The prevailing thought coming into the offseason was that the Sox would either be involved in a big trade for Roy Halladay or would continue their buy low approach on a guy like Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard, or Justin Duchsherer. Turns out none of those came to fruition after John Lackey came calling. Lackey is expected to be a work horse for the next five years, especially if Josh Beckett leaves town after the season (he's an impending free agent). He should be an outstanding 3rd starter this year and provide the Sox with an unmatched 1-2-3 punch. Lackey is also a great postseason pitcher, with the third best playoff ERA among active pitchers (1. Smoltz, 2. Beckett). Lackey's deal is frontloaded, meaning that if he does become dead weight at the end of the deal, he wouldn't be as bad of a hit on the payroll. Overall, he's a reliable, tough, top of the rotation pitcher who should provide stability for a rotation built around a potential 1-2 dynasty of Lester and Buchholz.

Grade: A

4. How are we going to add a big bat?

--Something is definitely in the works and most signs point toward Adrian Gonzalez. I, for one, have been shouting for the front office to acquire him, but I think Theo is going to be smart about this one. He knows that new Padres GM and Scouting Director, Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod, know the Sox farm system better than any other competing front office in baseball and perhaps even better than Epstein. Losing McLeod could end up being the biggest loss of the year for Boston after he scouted, drafted, and signed everyone the past half decade, including Buchholz, Papelbon, Pedroia, Youkilis, Bard, Ellsbury, Lowrie, Westmoreland, Kelly, Reddick, Kalish, Lars Anderson, etc. Theo's also got some more work to do now that Lowell is still on his roster and he must address that first. Gonzalez will come at a HUGE price, but a bat is a must so something will get done. Other dream names to keep an eye on are Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, and Joey Votto. Theo is always creative so the only thing that can be confidently said is that something will happen. We just don't know what or when.

Some possible scenarios:

-Boston uses the added depth in the outfield with Cameron and in the rotation with Lackey to deal Buchholz and/or Ellsbury along with lesser prospects to get Gonzalez. This reduces the price on farm but means dismantling major pieces of the major league roster and is actually a less favorable deal for San Diego, because major league ready players cost more than low level prospects. I don't see that one happening.

-Theo deals away expiring contracts of Beckett and Lowell for prospects to send to San Diego, along with a few of their own, to get Gonzalez. This could be done as part of a three team deal or in separate agreements. Theo would have to deal with a big backlash in dealing Beckett, despite the financial sense it could make, and thus very hesitant to pull the trigger on such a trade. This is doubtful because the Sox need to give this imposing starting rotation a shot.

-The Sox wait until the trade deadline to do a straight swap of prospects for Gonzalez. This scenario seems pretty reasonable and I could see it happening, especially if the offense is anemic early on. The only problem then becomes whether or not Gonzo is enough to get Boston into the playoffs after a slow start.

-Theo gets away from the talk of A-Gon and makes a deal for a lesser name like Joey Votto who would come at a similar price tag and provide a presence in the middle of the lineup. The cost is similar because he is under team control through 2013 and batted .322 last season. Although this may not seem like a realistic option, the Reds could wind up trading Votto if they are overwhelmed with an offer with young prospect Yonder Alonso waiting to fill in at first.

What do YOU think will happen?