Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Red Sox Prospects Preview Part 1: The Studs

For Part 1 of the Red Sox Prospects Preview, we will look at the cream of the crop: Casey Kelly and Ryan Westmoreland. The two are ranked #1 and #2 respectively on Soxprospects.com and are potential stars. Whether it will be in Boston, or as a trade chip, these two will play a large part in determing the future of the Sox.



Casey Kelly is a 20 year old, 6'3" 200 lb right-handed pitcher from Sarasota, FL. Kelly has only pitched one year in professional baseball, between mid A and high A baseball in the Red Sox farm system. He was drafted as a shortshop out of high school, but the Sox always saw huge potential for him on the mound. The Sox compromised with Kelly who wanted to play SS, allowing him to split the year between pitching and hitting so that he would agree to sign with the them instead of playing football at the University of Tennessee.

Kelly was given a 100 IP limit on the season before moving back to SS and used those innings well. He pitched to a 1.12 ERA for Greenville and 3.09 ERA for Salem, with a 74/16 K/BB ratio. Those numbers convinced the Sox and Kelly that he must convert to a full-time pitcher.

Kelly isn't seen as an overpowering pitcher, currently he operates around 92 MPH with his fastball, but if he fills out as expected he could be consistently throwing in the mid 90's. His dominance on the mound is based on his filthy 12-6 curveball that has thus far made minor league hitters look silly and projects as a plus-plus pitch. He also mixes in a changeup, but that still needs some refining.

Kelly has outstanding mound presence and temperament for a 20 year old, both of which contribute to his precise command of the strike zone. His ability to throw all of his pitches for strikes and dictate a game to an opposing lineup make him by far the best pitching prospect in the Sox system and the second most coveted player.



The most coveted player in the system is Ryan Westmoreland. Westmoreland is a 6'2" 212 lb local boy centerfielder from Portsmouth, RI. He was drafted straight out of high school and did not participate in minor league ball immediately because of a shoulder surgery that actually caused him to fall into the 5th round of the 2008 draft. Westmoreland also suffered a broken collarbone at the end of this season, ending his season a couple weeks short. He absolutely dominated the NY-Penn League for Lowell and made his presence well-known before the injury.

Westmoreland only played in 60 games for Lowell but was able to post a .296 BA, with a .885 OPS, 7 HR and 19 SB. Those numbers are impressive by themselves and when you take into account the fact that he was only 19 years old, they're amazing. He also played a stellar CF for Lowell while doing all of this.

Westmoreland is a bit slender for his height but has a good build for gaining some muscle. His power numbers will improve, projecting as a 30 HR hitter down the road. 19 SB in 60 games also puts him at around 50 SB over a full major league season, with most scouts agreeing he should be at least a 30+ SB player. That number is helped significantly by his very very advanced plate approach where he draws a high number of walks and understands the strike zone. With all of this, he's also seen as the third best defensive outfielder in the Sox system behind Che-Hsuan Lin and Reymond Fuentes. Essentially, if he continues to develop to the top of his potential, we could be looking at a better version of Grady Sizemore roaming Fenway in 3 or 4 years...


The outlook for each of these guys is great at this point, although we said the same about Lars Anderson last offseason before a disappointing 2009 season. Thinking optimistically however, Kelly and Westmoreland together represent the top of our rotation and heart of our lineup for most of the next decade. Because neither has made it to Double A thus far, they are probably still at least two years away from the Majors.

Some reports have said that Kelly could be ready for a September call-up this season if he starts in AA and continues to dominate. Westmoreland will likely start in Greenville (Mid A) and could realistically be up to Fenway around 2012. Every possible deal for anyone of value (think Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, Joey Votto, Felix Hernandez, etc) will be based around at least one, if not both of these guys. Their trade value could be at its maximum right now so it will be interesting to see if Theo sells high on them or rides things out...

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