Red Sox Prospects Preview - The Future

For the final installment of this year's Red Sox Prospects Preview, we'll be looking at where the Sox system is now and where it could be by year's end. (Check the dashboard to your right for links to the first two installments). With the signings of Adrian Beltre and the trade for Bill Hall, it appears that the Sox lineup is set for the start of the season. This does not mean however that Theo is not still looking for the next big move to improve the club.

Bowden is a rare Sox prospect ready for Major League Action

Today:

As it currently stands, the Red Sox farm system is in the middle of the pack relative to the rest of MLB. ESPN's Keith Law says this is not quite a bad thing and I agree with him. Theo had put together a top 5 Farm System each of the last few years, but when names like Buchholz, Bard, Papelbon, Lester, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Youkilis no longer qualify as prospects, your system has to take a hit. It's clear that this year and potentially even next year are "rebuilding years" which simply means that the low level prospects haven't proven themselves to be Top 100 Minor League talents yet. There is enough young potential from the last two draft classes to make that happen. Even names like Alex Wilson, David Renfroe, and Madison Younginer could already be the next crop of stars beginning to develop as we speak.


The main problem with the Sox system, making them middle of the pack at the moment, is a lack of balance. The "perfect system" has a balance between major league ready talent and raw, toolsy players in the minor leagues. It also has a balance of quality arms, both starters and relievers, and position players. The Sox have neither at the moment. The only players currently capable of being on a major league roster currently are Josh Reddick, Michael Bowden, and Junichi Tazawa. Bowden and Tazawa each clearly have lots of work to do to be able to get major league hitters out. Reddick could potentially be a valuable player on a team where he could get ample ABs and thus he is the only one. There is however balance further down in the ranks. The AA squad could be outstanding with names like SS Jose Iglesias, SS Casey Kelly, and 1B Lars Anderson all filling out the roster. These players are likely not destined for Fenway this year though. The lower minors, Lowell and the Gulf Coast League Team, also have the raw potential that is needed to build a good sytem, as most experts ranked the Red Sox draft as top 5 in 2009 and arguable THE best in 2008.

Lars Anderson's 2010 has a big impact on the future of the organization

One Year From Now:

There are two distinct possibilities for where the Sox System could stand at the end of the 2010 season. The difference between the two is whether or not Theo is willing to part with his studs in order to pick up a big name bat on the trade market. It appears Adrian Gonzalez could be a target at the deadline or possibly a Lance Berkman type of player. The fact that Adrian Beltre's contract is only guaranteed for this year suggests that Theo wants to keep that option open for himself at season's end.


Should the Red Sox make a trade for one of these guys, it will surely include at least one of Casey Kelly or Ryan Westmoreland. Waiting until the trade deadline decreases the asking price for either because one less year of his services is being paid for. No GM who deserves his job however would accept a deal without one stud in return. If the deal is made, and as mentioned above it would likely be after the season, the Sox system would obviously take a hit. A package on the order of Kelly, Kalish, and Bowden could land one year of A-Gon's services. This would mean the top two pitching prospects and second best outfield prospect would be gone, but the big club would be poised to continue its dominance of the AL East. The system would likely fall a bit further relative to the rest of the league, but it would be well worth it. The emergence of some of the 2009 draftees could make up for this, but there is no doubt the system today would be better than a year from now in this scenario.

The other scenario is that no big deal is made. The Sox manage to win games and compete with the Yankees with the top notch pitching and defense that won them a title in 2004. Kevin Youkilis and Victor Martinez carry the offense to a serviceable productivity. With this success in 2010, Theo could comfortably allow each of his valued prospects to continue to develop. At season's end, Lars Anderson would likely have completed his time in AAA and be ready to compete for a spot in Boston in 2011. This would mean Youk moves to third and Beltre takes his $9MM from 2010 and looks for a bigger deal. He might even replace David Ortiz, who has a club option for 2011, should Beltre stick around. Ryan Kalish would likely battle Josh Reddick for the 4th outfield spot in 2011 as an audition for the starting RF job when JD Drew walks after 2011. Jason Varitek would likely be gone after 2010 and Luis Exposito would fight for a spot, either starting or backing up Victor Martinez, should he receive a contract extension. Michael Bowden and Junichi Tazawa would both be either at a crossroads or gone already... Josh Beckett's contract is up after 2010 and that leaves only one open spot with two applicants.

The rest of the system would hopefully be in great shape at that point. Jose Iglesias would be ready for a 2011 in AAA, grooming his talents to take over for Marco Scutaro, whose contract is up after 2011. Casey Kelly would likely finish 2010 in AAA and be competing with Bowden and Tazawa for the open spot in Boston. Should he not get it however, another year in Pawtucket would only serve to polish him further and have him ready to take Tim Wakefield's spot or Bowden/Tazawa's spot for 2012. Westmoreland would likely be ready for a season of AA in 2011 in which he might even more highly valued than now. Finally, the 2009 draft class would likely find themselves poised with Westmoreland in either Portland or Salem for 2011.

All of this though is incredibly idealized and optimistic. Things fall apart when someone has a bad year or gets seriously injured or a deal that's too good to pass up comes along. I think however that this is the structure that Theo saw when he made the deals he did with free agents this winter. Two key players to monitor in 2010 are Lars Anderson and Victor Martinez. Should Anderson bounce back for another great year in 2008 and Martinez hold the lineup together with consistent production, Theo would be willing to play the hand he's been dealt rather than trying to trade for a big name bat. Should Anderson continue his struggles and Martinez be simply productive, but not outstanding, Theo would likely have no choice but to make a splash in order to keep his goal of a World Series in the realm of possibilities.


The future of the Red Sox farm system hangs in the balance, as does every other team's, and is dependent on the performance of its players and availability of others'. The future of the Red Sox organization could go in many different ways, but one thing is sure. It is headed in a positive direction. Now all we have to do is trust in Theo and crew to make the right decisions and let the roster he's assembled perform to on the field.


What do you think is more likely: the Red Sox teams as they stand now perform well and no blockbuster trade is made, or the team struggles to score runs and the farm must be mortgaged to bring in a big name slugger?