Red Sox vs. Rays Preview

The Red Sox will host the Rays in their last series of the year this weekend. The Rays are definitely out of it at this point, now tied with Seattle at 9.5 games out of the wildcard lead, but you know if anyone would love to be the spoiler for Boston's playoff chances it would be the Rays. We just took our first series from the Rays at the Trop all year so either we've turned the corner against them or they might just be done. The Rays are definitely looking to the future at this point, trading away Scott Kazmir's salary, shopping Carl Crawford, and bringing up ace prospect Wade Davis to start in his place. Make no mistake, the Rays are here to stay as long as they have Longoria, Price, Upton, and Zobrist as their core.

The Sox just took a quick two gamer against the O's, thanks to Victor Martinez's clutch bat and Buchholz quieting Baltimore's bats on the mound. Hopefully Boston can continue that pattern with both Lester and Beckett scheduled to start. Ortiz recently went into another of his mini-slumps so it will be interesting to see if he can come out of it after homering in the first game of the series.

Friday 7:10 PM NESN Shields (9-10, 4.02 ERA) vs. Lester (12-7, 3.44 ERA)
Saturday 7:10 PM NESN Davis (0-0, 1.29 ERA) vs. Beckett (14-6, 3.87 ERA)
Sunday 1:35 PM NESN Garza (7-9, 3.85 ERA) vs. Buchholz (5-3, 3.92 ERA)

GAME 1

Jon Lester has replaced Johan Santana as arguably the best left handed pitcher in the Majors. He comes at hitters from either side of the plate with a mid-90's four seamer, low-90's two seamer, mid-80's change, low 80's curve that he can throw for strike one or strike guys out with, and the best left-handed cutter in baseball. It looks like Randy Johnson in his younger years. He has the ability, when he's on, to make any hitter look overmatched. Shields has a solid fastball and a plus change, but Lester has the advantage in any AL matchup, except maybe King Felix or Verlander. Of course he has to make it last year in and year out, but as Dennis Green would say, "he is, who we thought he is." Look for the Sox to put up three or four runs on Shields, possibly on some solo homers, and Lester to pass off a few run lead to close it out.

GAME 2

Beckett looked better in his last start (no homers, seven innings, three runs) but still not himself. There has been talk that he needs a couple extra days of rest to build back up his strength (in '03 and '07, his best years, he had 10 day breaks in July and September to stay fresh in the playoffs). It'd be nice to see him get that breather, but Boston can't sit back with Texas chasing. Maybe we'll see Francona use the off day after the series, along with Matsuzaka coming back, to get Beckett an extra day or two. As mentioned before, Wade Davis is a stud prospect with one start under his belt, who had been waiting patiently at AAA Durham for his turn. It'll probably be a close game when either starter comes out of the game and then become a battle of the bullpens. Advantage: Sox.

GAME 3

Buchholz looks like he has stamped his name on that third starter spot and don't expect to see him give it up. He mowed down the O's in his last start and had been on a roll before that. Garza struggled against Boston in his last start for the first time in recent memory and things should get even worse for him in Fenway if he brings that same stuff. It would be tough for Buck to put together the same line against a much better lineup (even without Carlos Pena), but even just posting a quality start will be an accomplishment. The Rays will be hungry, but you know Boston would love to say goodbye to the Rays with a spanking after last year's playoffs. Garza leaves Fenway with a bad taste in his mouth and Boston welcomes the Angels to Fenway on a high note. What does everyone think?

NOTES
-Daisuke threw three innings worth of pitches by his old standards (89) over 6.1 innings last night. Probably the best sign along with the 7/1 K/BB ration. He'll be ready to go against next Monday, so we'll see if Francona throws him right away or is strategic about using him to get the rest of his starters lined up for their next few series.
-Texas is still two games back in the wild card and faces Seattle this weekend, including King Felix (Theo's boy). Looks like the standings should stay pretty much unchanged when it's all said and done, but it'd be nice to pick up a game.

We're smack in the middle of the stretch run!