Patriots vs. Colts Preview

Patriots (6-2) @ Colts (8-0)
Sunday 8:20 PM - NBC
Favorite: Colts -3
Over/Under: 50

The time has come again. Tom Brady will lead the 6-2 Patriots into Indianapolis to face the undefeated Colts for another epic chapter of perhaps the best rivalry of the last decade.

The Patriots are coming off a workman like win against the divisional rival Miami Dolphins. However, other than Miami, the team has faced some questionable opponents which has led to many people trying to figure out if the 2009 Patriots are contenders or pretenders.

Sunday's showdown will dictate a lot about both teams. These games always seem to come down to the end, with the outcome decided on the final possession. You can bet Belichick is aware of that, so expect his game management to reflect it. The best defense in this game may be keeping Peyton on the sidelines.

Jim Caldwell has inherited a Tony Dungy squad that is clicking on all cylinders. Even more, many people don't realize that long time defensive coordinator Ron Meeks has been replaced by Larry Coyer who has the Colts straying away from their "Tampa-2" scheme.

The Indy defense has been ravaged by injuries this season, but nonetheless continue to play very well. Much of Indy's success can be attributed to the play of Dwight Freeney (9.5 sacks) and Robert Mathis (6.5 sacks). Freeney tends to get the attention amongst the Indianapolis defensive players, but anyone that knows football knows that Mathis is amongst the league's best defenders and arguably the best strip artist in the game.

This is a big statement game for the Pats so let's check out what it will take to win.

1. Don't let Peyton get in a rhythm. The Colts have a plethora of offensive weapons and Peyton is as good as anyone in the NFL at exploiting mismatches. Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne are playing like All-Pros and Brandon Mcgowan vs. Dallas Clark could be the match-up of the game. The Pats need to be especially aware of Clark on third downs. The Colts are first in the NFL with a 3rd down percentage above 50%.

2. Protect #12. While the Colts defense has been a pleasant sunrise this season, it isn't being held together by much. Numerous injuries, especially across the secondary, haven't hurt the Colts yet, but that looks to change this week. Tom Terrific appears to be in 2007 form and if we can protect him he'll have a chance to burn the Colts secondary all game. Welker and Moss are obvious candidates for a good game, but don't be surprised if Tom spreads the ball around to all his receivers, even involving the surprising Sam Aiken.

3. Third down on both sides of the ball. A very revealing offensive statistic of good football teams is their efficiency on 3rd down. The same can be said of the ability of the defense to get off the field on third down and the Colts are tops in the league in both categories. In order to win this football game, the Pats can't let Peyton comfortably sit in the pocket and make clutch 3rd down passes. On the offensive side of the ball, we must sustain consistent drives which inherently requires success on 3rd down.


PATRIOTS' INJURIES:

Did Not Participate
WR Brandon Tate (knee) OUT
RB Fred Taylor (ankle) OUT
DL Jarvis Green (knee) OUT

Limited Participation

LT Matt Light (knee) Doubtful
TE Chris Baker (shoulder) Questionable
DE Ty Warren (ankle) Questionable
WR Julian Edelman (forearm) Questionable
S Brandon Meriweather (foot) Questionable
RB Sammy Morris (knee) Questionable
LB Eric Alexander (groin) Questionable
C Dan Koppen (knee) Questionable
S James Sanders (groin) Questionable
NT Ron Brace (ankle) Questionable
LB Tully Banta-Cain (groin) Questionable

Full Participation

QB Tom Brady (right shoulder) Probable
CB Shawn Springs (knee) Probable
TE Benjamin Watson (back) Probable

COLTS' INJURIES:

Did Not Participate

WR Anthony Gonzalez (knee) OUT
DB Kelvin Hayden (knee) OUT
K Adam Vinatieri (right knee) OUT
T Tony Ugoh (not injury related)

Limited Participation

DB Aaron Francisco (shin) Questionable
QB Jim Sorgi (right shoulder) Questionable

Full Participation

DE Dwight Freeney

EXTRA:

• In the 16-0 season, the Pats beat the Colts who were 7-0 at the time.
  
• Carl entered a chat with Tedy Bruschi yesterday on ESPNBoston.com and got to ask a question:
  

  Carl (Amherst)

  With so many matchups between Belichick/Brady versus Manning, who if either side has more of an advantage?

  Tedy Bruschi

  I think the Belichick/Brady duo has the advantage. It's Jim Caldwell's first year as head coach and that head coach/QB relationship probably isn't as developed as well as the Belichick/Brady one.

The Patriots practiced inside this week with crowd noise blaring through the facility's speaker system to prepare for the Colts, and you can be sure the brand new Lucas Oil Stadium will be bumping Sunday night. Get excited, it will be another one for the ages.