Playoff Preview: Patriots vs. Ravens

Clayton's drop secured a 27-21 W in week 4.

PATRIOTS (10-6) vs. RAVENS (9-7)
Sunday 1:00 PM - CBS
LINE: Patriots -3.5
OVER/UNDER: 43

In the Patriots' previous match-up against the Ravens, the game was more about the Ravens blowing it than it was the Pats winning it. If it wasn't for a dropped pass by Mark Clayton for a critical first down, the Patriots very well could have lost that game.

The Ravens outplayed the Patriots in numerous meaningful statistical categories. They had more total passing and rushing yards, they were more efficient on 3rd down (64% vs. the Pats' 40%), and they played better defense.

The Ravens are a good football team. They are well coached and they always play with a passion. This same team played in the AFC Championship game last season and despite some tough losses this season, they pose a scary threat as an underdog in this game.

Key Match-ups:

1. Exploit Ray Lewis in coverage. Even in his prime of the 2000 Super Bowl winning defense, Ray Lewis' only weakness lied in his pass coverage. As far as playing the run goes there is not another LB in the NFL over the decade that has been more of force inside against the run. Now, 10 years later, Ray Lewis hasn't gotten any better in coverage. Due to the fact that he's Ray Lewis and the leader of his team, Ray rarely gets taken off the field, even on 3rd down when sometimes he should. Nonetheless when Ray is on the field look for Belichick to get the running backs and tight ends involved in the passing game.

2. Pressure the pocket from the inside. In recent weeks Joe Flacco has proven he is not unflappable. The second year QB has shown he will abandon the pocket too early at times, and recently there have been discussions of his mechanics becoming lazy. Taking these things into account, the best way to get to Flacco is from the inside. In the first game this season the Patriots only two sacks were from Mike Wright. By bringing pressure from the middle Flacco will be forced outside the pocket where he has proven to force bad throws.

3. Make them pay for doubling Moss. With Wes Welker out for the playoffs, many people think that double covering Randy Moss will make the Patriots offense less explosive. If that's the case and Randy is doubled all game, look for Brady to look the other way. When a team double covers one receiver they leave themselves vulnerable in other areas. If the Pats want to make it through the playoffs this year, Brady will have to find the open guy whether it's Edelman, a back, or a tight end.

4. Stop the Ravens' running attack. In the week 4 match-up, RB Ray Rice had 11 carries for 103 yards, and had a 50-yard scamper as well. Rice has not slowed down all season, on his way to a Pro Bowl selection. The Pats can't sleep on back-up Willis McGahee either as he is coming off of a 167 yard performance last week. Whether they are playing from ahead, or simply stuffing the run, the Patriots would like to see the ball in Flacco's hands more often than in the RB's hands. In the previous match-up the Patriots held the Ravens to 17 rushing attempts compared to 47 passes (a season high for Flacco). Another thing in favor of the Patriots is the return of Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren to beef up the d-line.

This shall be an interesting postseason for the Patriots. Things have not necessarily gone according to plan this season with losses in big games. They will look to win for the ninth time at home this season and hope to gain a little momentum in these playoffs. Expectations for this squad appear to be less than normal because of the topsy turvy regular season, but not it's a whole new ball game.

Prediction: GO PATRIOTS! 24-17