Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Red Sox Prospects Preview - Depth of the System

For Part 2 of the Red Sox Prospects Preview, we will take a closer look into the depth in the Minor League system beyond the studs, Casey Kelly and Ryan Westmoreland, who we talked about last week. We'll take a look at the depth in the outfield, the infield, and on the mound. The big names to remember are Ryan Kalish, Josh Reddick, Jose Iglesias, Lars Anderson and Stolmy Pimentel.


The Outfield:

Kalish was Sox best Minor League Hitter in 2009


The outfield pair of Ryan Kalish and Josh Reddick are the headliners of the Red Sox outfield future. Though neither has the high ceiling that Westmoreland possesses, each has proven himself at a higher level in the Minors and has a much higher floor. Kalish was named the Red Sox Minor League Player of the Year this past season with a .271 AVG, 13 HR, 14 SB, and .781 OPS for AA Portland, while patrolling a strong center and right field. Kalish projects as a strong, athletic #2 hitter in the Sox lineup who could potentially take Ellsbury's spot should Scott Boras steer him away from Boston after his arbitration years end. Look for Kalish to make an appearance during September call-ups this year and compete for a spot in Boston next Spring Training. Reddick, as we saw glimpses of for Boston in 2009, is an outstanding RF with a strong arm and range and the potential to be a solid major league power hitter. At just 6'2", 185 lb currently, Reddick has the room to fill out and improve on his .593 and .520 SLG % in 2008 and 2009 in A+ and AA respectively. Reddick is not the base stealer that Kalish is but provides a slightly better control of the strike zone and with that run-producing power, could be a productive #5 hitter for Boston. He'll most likely be the starting RF for AAA Pawtucket to start 2010 and could be a contributing member of the roster in Fenway by midseason if any injuries occur.

The other names to watch out for in the Sox Minor League outfield are Che-Hsuan Lin and Raymond Fuentes. Lin is one of the best defensive outfielders to come through the Sox Farm System in years, with outstanding range in CF and a strong, accurate arm to match. His offense is not nearly as advanced as his defense however, with an OPS around just .710 his past two years. He needs to make more solid contact in order to continue his progression towards being a serviceable Major League CF to compliment a strong hitting lineup or else he could end up being a lifetime defensive replacement. Fuentes was the Sox #1 pick in the 2009 draft and being just 18 years old, is at least 3-4 years from being a contributor for Boston. He possesses the speed, contact swing, and defensive prowess that have some scouts comparing him to Jacoby Ellsbury and could in fact be Ellsbury's replacement as the Sox leadoff hitter. He is very young and raw at this point, but Theo seems to think very highly of him. The Red Sox Minor League outfield is very top heavy as far as depth. Westmoreland is a gem, with Kalish and Reddick appearing to be future productive players, and Lin and Fuentes having the potential to be stars in their own right. However, we may never see more than one of these guys on the Boston roster...

The Infield:

Anderson needs a strong 2010 to make up for a poor 2009

The two names to remember in the Sox infield future are Lars Anderson and Jose Iglesias. Anderson is a 6'4" 210 lb 1B who has the potential to be a star in Boston, but a very lackluster 2009 has scared some scouts away from their previous lofty predictions. Despite his just .233 AVG this past summer, Anderson still possesses top notch understanding of the strike zone and the ability to drive in tons of runs with big time power should he reach his full potential. He was named Red Sox Minor League Player of the Year in 2008 with his .316 AVG, .420 OBP, .950 OPS, and 18 HR. If he can rebound in 2010, he'll retake his position as heir apparent in the Sox lineup to David Ortiz for 2011, but if not, he could see himself being traded to another organization or platooning at 1B. Iglesias is a big name prospect from Cuba who just signed last year for $6M signing bonus. He's been compared to a young Ozzie Smith at SS so even if the rumors aren't quite true, which they most certainly aren't, he should be a highlight reel in the middle of the diamond. His offense is still very raw at just 20 years old and he needs to mature at the plate significantly to become the all-star that some see him as. Improved plate discipline, an opposite field approach, and a bit stronger frame could make him one of the best SS in the AL in 2012, but if his development stalls, he might end up a journeyman. The Red Sox signed Marco Scutaro to just a two year deal, and you have to think they didn't want to block this kid...

The infield depth is filled out by Anthony Rizzo, Luis Exposito, and Derrik Gibson. Rizzo was the Soxprospects.com Comeback Player of the Year after bouncing back from his bout with cancer in 2008 to the tune of a .295 AVG, .840 OPS, and 12 HR in 2009. His glove at 1B is the best on the farm and his approach and discipline at the plate have some scouts ranking him higher than Anderson and as his strength returns more and more from cancer treatment, they could be proven right. Exposito is the only prospect in the system who appears able to be a starting major league catcher. In just 23 games in AA Portland last year, he posted a .337 AVG and .860 OPS while playing solid defense behind the plate. His game-calling abilities need to improve, which will come with maturity, but he still appears poised to be a solid major leaguer in the making. Gibson is a very intriguing prospect in the middle infield. He has the ability to play SS and 2B with great range and his 28 SB in 33 tries in just 67 games make him a rare talent. He does need to show that he can handle himself at the plate at higher levels in the Minors, as he's only ever played in Low A Lowell, and thus it'll be 3-4 years at the earliest until he's in Boston. The depth in the infield is much stronger than that of the outfield, with top tier names not quite at the level of Kalish and Reddick, but with more potential starters in the making.

The Mound:

Pimentel could be a hidden gem in the Sox system

Unfortunately for the Red Sox, the pitching depth in the Minor Leagues that made the Sox System the envy of every other organization in past years is no longer there. Names like Buchholz, Lester, Bard, and Papelbon have made their way to Boston and are stars in their own right and others like Michael Bowden have fallen a bit from their perch. Beyond Casey Kelly who could be a star in the making, the pitching prospects are made up of a number of B level prospects who appear to be future #3 and 4 starters at best. Junichi Tazawa and Michael Bowden each made appearances in Boston in 2009 and could again in 2010. Each bases his approach around strong command of a low 90's fastball with a good breaking ball. Each is a "what you see is what you get" prospect without much more room for development and each appears destined to fill out a rotation and possibly not for Boston...

Felix Doubront
and Stolmy Pimentel present Theo with chips that could potentially blossom into productive members of any rotation. Each has a strong fastball with room to add more velocity and each has an outstanding changeup that brings numerous strikeouts. Should they continue to develop as pitchers and not just throwers, Doubront and Pimentel could become solid #2 starters or excellent #3 starters behind Lester and Buchholz. Pimentel appears to have flown under the radar the past two years because of the big names ahead of him, but perhaps his time is coming in 2010 to be talked about in the same light as those before him...

Overall, as mentioned before, the Sox pitching depth in the minor leagues is not outstanding. They have the ace in Kelly, but the rest of the names in Bowden, Tazawa, Pimentel, and Doubront make Theo's report card full of B's. A strong 2010 from Pimentel and Doubront, a good return for guys like Bowden in a trade, or a breakout season from new names like Alex Wilson and Madison Younginer could all contribute to Boston being once again recognized as the breeding ground of great pitchers.


The final installment of the Prospects Preview will look at the future of the Red Sox Minor League system and its relation to the Major League roster. How do you think the Sox Farm System stacks up to some of the others around MLB?

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